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T respite following the ceasefire in Gaza is immense. Across Israel, the liberation of the living hostages has sparked widespread elation. Throughout Gaza and the West Bank, festivities are taking place as up to 2,000 Palestinian prisoners are being freed – even as anguish lingers due to uncertainty about who is being freed and where they will be sent. Across northern Gaza, residents can at last go back to search the debris for the remnants of an believed 10,000 unaccounted-for individuals.

Ceasefire Emergence Despite Earlier Odds

As recently as three weeks ago, the likelihood of a ceasefire appeared remote. Yet it has taken effect, and on Monday Donald Trump travelled from Jerusalem, where he was cheered in the Knesset, to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. There, he participated in a prestigious peace conference of over 20 world leaders, among them Sir Keir Starmer. The diplomatic roadmap initiated there is set to advance at a meeting in the UK. The US president, acting with international partners, successfully brokered this deal happen – contrary to, not because of, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Aspirations for Sovereignty Tempered by Past Precedents

Hopes that the deal represents the first step toward Palestinian statehood are understandable – but, considering historical precedent, slightly idealistic. It lacks a transparent trajectory to self-rule for Palestinians and risks splitting, for the immediate period, Gaza from the West Bank. Additionally the total ruin this war has caused. The omission of any timeframe for Palestinian self-determination in Mr Trump’s plan contradicts boastful references, in his Knesset speech, to the “epochal beginning” of a “age of abundance”.

The US president was unable to refrain from dividing and making personal the deal in his speech.

In a moment of relief – with the liberation of detainees, truce and resumption of aid – he chose to recast it as a lesson in ethics in which he solely reclaimed Israel’s dignity after purported disloyalty by previous American leaders Obama and Biden. Notwithstanding the Biden administration previously having attempted a similar deal: a truce tied to humanitarian access and eventual negotiations.

Substantive Control Essential for Legitimate Peace

A plan that withholds one side substantive control cannot yield sustainable agreement. The truce and humanitarian convoys are to be applauded. But this is still not policy development. Without mechanisms ensuring Palestinian involvement and command over their own organizations, any deal endangers cementing subjugation under the discourse of peace.

Humanitarian Priorities and Recovery Hurdles

Gaza’s people crucially depend on relief assistance – and food and medicines must be the initial concern. But rebuilding must not be delayed. Amid 60 million tonnes of debris, Palestinians need assistance repairing residences, learning institutions, healthcare facilities, places of worship and other institutions devastated by Israel’s military operation. For Gaza’s transitional administration to prosper, monetary resources must arrive promptly and security gaps be remedied.

Similar to much of the president's peace plan, allusions to an multinational security contingent and a suggested “board of peace” are disturbingly unclear.

International Support and Future Prospects

Substantial international support for the Palestinian leadership, enabling it to take over from Hamas, is perhaps the most promising scenario. The enormous suffering of the recent period means the humanitarian imperative for a solution to the conflict is possibly more pressing than ever. But while the halt in fighting, the return of the detainees and pledge by Hamas to “remove weapons from” Gaza should be acknowledged as favorable developments, Mr Trump’s track record provides scant basis to have faith he will deliver – or consider himself obligated to attempt. Immediate respite does not imply that the possibility of a Palestinian state has been advanced.