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Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|