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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the greatest upset.

Yet this year's race is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising collectively. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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